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Monday, June 12, 2006

Reading the numbers - feeling the curves

The economic stats show 124,028 residents logged in over the last 60 days. What the heck does that actually mean?

Well, while not everyone who registers an account logs in on the same day (or actually necessarily in the same week or month), let's make the assumption that they did, pretty much. The ones who don't are rare. So let's assume that pretty much everyone who created an account on SL in the last 60 days signed on during that period.

The question is - how many accounts is that?

71,725, actually. Ask me a hard one.

So, our important metric is actually repeat business. That's the remainder: 52,303.

That's about 871 distinct residents per day over 60 days.

No, let's not talk about alts. Alts mean an existing resident shelled out cash to have another account in-world. Does that count more or less than a new free-first-basic account? See?

But there's the number we have to track to see if we're winning or losing. Number of residents logged in over 60 days, less the number of new accounts in the same period. The curve over time of the result tells you whether we are going to the stars, or exploding on the launch-pad.

Which way is the curve going? Don't look at me, dearie. I only did the arithmetic just now. Ask me again in a week or so, when we have something to compare.

Metrics don't tell the whole story.

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